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Covid-19 pandemic: current situation and forecasts
I. The evolution of the SARS-COV-2 virus and the emergence of new options:
The Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus, remains a serious global problem, despite large-scale vaccination and development of antiviral drugs. One of the key factors that determine the course of the pandemic is the constant evolution of the virus, leading to the emergence of new options with various characteristics, such as increased contractions, the ability to evade an immune response caused by vaccination or a disease, and, in some cases, increased virulence.
A. Motics and recombination mechanisms:
SARS-COV-2, like other RNA viruses, has a high mutation rate, which is due to the lack of error correction mechanism for viral RNA replication. Mutations occur spontaneously during replication and can lead to changes in the amino acid sequence of viral proteins. Most mutations are neutral or even harmful to the virus, however, some mutations can give the virus advantages such as the increased ability to get involved in the ACE2 receptor on human cells, which increases infection, or changes in the structure of viral antigens, allowing the virus to be mcessed from antibodies.
In addition to mutations, SARS-COV-2 can also be subjected to recombination, that is, the exchange of genetic material between two or more viral strains that infect the same cell. Recombination can lead to the emergence of new options with a unique combination of properties obtained from different parental strains.
B. The main options that cause anxiety (VOC):
The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies SARS-COV-2 options that pose the greatest threat to public health as “Variants of Concern, VOC options”. These options include:
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Alpha (b.1.1.7): First identified in the UK at the end of 2020. He had increased infection compared to the initial strain of the virus. It is associated with a higher mortality compared to previous options.
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Beta (B.1.351): It was first detected in South Africa at the end of 2020. He had the ability to evade antibodies caused by vaccination or a disease.
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Gamma (p.1): It was first detected in Brazil in early 2021. He had increased infection and the ability to dodge antibodies.
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Delta (B.1.617.2): First revealed in India at the end of 2020. He had significantly increased infection compared to previous options. It is associated with a more severe course of the disease, especially in non -vaccinated persons.
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Omicron (B.1.1.529): It was first detected in South Africa in November 2021. He had extremely high infection and the ability to evade antibodies. It caused a sharp increase in incidence in many countries of the world. Omicron has many fence, such as BA.1, Ba.2, Ba.4, Ba.5 and others, which also differ in their properties.
C. The characteristics and distribution of new fence are Omicron:
Omicron and its fence continue to dominate the global epidemiological environment. Omicron’s fumes, such as BA.4 and Ba.5, have an increased ability to evade antibodies compared to previous fence, which leads to an increase in the number of repeated infections and breakthrough infections in vaccinated persons. Despite the fact that Omicron as a whole causes a less severe course of the disease than a delta, its high contrast led to overloading healthcare systems in many countries.
New fences of Omicron are constantly appearing, such as XBB.1.5 (Kraken), which have even more ability to evade antibodies. These new fence quickly spread and replace the previous options, which leads to new waves of incidence.
II. Global epidemiological situation:
Despite significant progress in vaccination and development of antiviral drugs, the Covid-19 remains a global healthcare problem. The epidemiological situation in different countries of the world varies depending on the level of vaccination, the prevalence of new options taken by public health and other factors.
A. The prevalence of Covid-19 in various regions of the world:
Currently, there is a decrease in the incidence of COVID-19 in many countries of the world compared to peak values registered during waves caused by the variants of the delta and Omicron. However, in some regions there is an increase in the incidence associated with the spread of new fence of Omicron.
In countries with a high level of vaccination, such as the countries of Western Europe and North America, the incidence of the COVID-19 remains relatively low, although periodic bursts associated with the spread of new fence are observed. In countries with a low level of vaccination, the incidence of COVID-19 remains higher, and these countries are more vulnerable to new waves of incidence.
B. The effect of vaccination on the incidence, hospitalization and mortality:
Covid-19 vaccination is an effective means of protecting against the severe course of the disease, hospitalization and death. Studies show that vaccinated faces are much less less likely to get COVID-19, and if they get sick, they can tolerate the disease easier and less often need hospitalization. Vaccination also reduces the risk of death from Covid-19.
However, the effectiveness of vaccines is reduced over time and against the new variants of the virus. To maintain a high level of protection, booster vaccination is necessary.
C. Mortality indicators and severe course of the disease:
The mortality indicators from the Covid-19 have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the pandemic, which is associated with vaccination, improvement of treatment methods and a change in virus virulence. However, the Covid-19 is still a serious cause of death, especially in older people and people with concomitant diseases.
The severe course of the COVID-19 disease, requiring hospitalization and intensive care, has also become less common, especially in vaccinated persons. However, healthcare systems in many countries continue to experience a load due to the COVID-19.
III. The impact of pandemia on various aspects of life:
The Covid-19 pandemic had a deep and multifaceted impact on various aspects of life, including healthcare, economics, education, social sphere and mental health.
A. Influence on the healthcare system:
Covid-19 pandemic has led to overloading healthcare systems in many countries of the world. Hospitals and intensive care units were crowded with patients with Covid-19, which led to a shortage of beds, medical personnel and equipment. The pandemic also led to a delay or cancellation of planned operations and other medical procedures.
B. Economic consequences:
Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the world economy. The introduced restrictions on movement and social contacts led to a reduction in economic activity, the closure of enterprises and the growth of unemployment. The sectors of the economy associated with tourism, hospitality and entertainment were especially badly affected.
C. influence on education:
Covid-19 pandemia led to the closure of schools and universities in many countries of the world. Students and students were forced to switch to distance learning, which led to a decrease in the quality of education and an increase in inequality in access to education.
D. Social consequences:
Covid-19 pandemia led to increased social isolation and loneliness. Restrictions on social contacts and quarantine measures led to a deterioration in mental health and an increase in the number of cases of depression and anxiety.
E. impact on mental health:
Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the mental health of the population. Stress, anxiety, fear of infection, loss of loved ones, economic difficulties and social isolation led to a deterioration in mental health and an increase in the number of cases of mental disorders.
IV. Anti -epidemic measures and strategies for the fight against pandemia:
To combat Covid-19 pandemia, governments and healthcare authorities in many countries of the world took various anti-epidemic measures and developed strategies aimed at reducing the incidence, hospitalization and mortality.
A. Vaccination and booster vaccination:
Vaccination is the most effective means of protecting against the severe course of the disease, hospitalization and death from Covid-19. Mass vaccination of the population is a key element of strategy for combating pandemia.
Boster vaccination is necessary to maintain a high level of protection against COVID-19, especially against new variants of the virus.
B. Freight mode:
Wearing masks in public places is an effective means of reducing the spread of the virus. Freight mode is especially important in closed rooms and places of accumulation of people.
C. Social distance:
Social distance, that is, maintaining a safe distance between people, is also an effective means of reducing the spread of the virus.
D. Testing and tracking contacts:
Covid-19 testing and tracking of contacts allow you to identify and isolate infected individuals, which helps to prevent the further spread of the virus.
E. Treatment Covid-19:
Antiviral drugs have been developed that can reduce the severity of the COVID-19 disease and prevent hospitalization. The early start of treatment is an important factor for achieving the best results.
V. forecasts and scenarios for the development of pandemia Covid-19:
Prediction of the further development of the Covid-19 pandemia is a difficult task, since a lot depends on the evolution of the virus, the level of vaccination, public health and other factors taken.
A. Possible pandemic development scenarios:
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Endemic scenario: The SARS-COV-2 virus becomes endemic, that is, it constantly circulates in the population, causing seasonal flashes of incidence similar to the flu. In this script, the Covid-19 does not pose such a serious threat to the healthcare system and the economy, as at the beginning of the pandemic.
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The ongoing waves of incidence: The pandemic continues with periodic frequency waves caused by new virus options. This scenario requires constant efforts to vaccinate, test and take other anti -epidemic measures to contain the spread of the virus.
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The appearance of a more dangerous option: There is a risk of a new variant of the virus, which will be more contagious, virulent and resistant to vaccines. In this script, the pandemic may resume with renewed vigor.
B. Factors affecting the development of pandemia:
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Virus evolution: The emergence of new variants of the virus with changed characteristics is one of the key factors that determine the course of the pandemic.
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Vaccination level: A high level of vaccination of the population is an important factor for reducing incidence, hospitalization and mortality.
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Public health measures taken: The adoption of effective public health measures, such as mask regime, social distance and testing, helps to restrain the spread of the virus.
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Development of new vaccines and antiviral drugs: The development of new vaccines and antiviral drugs with higher effectiveness against the new virus options can help in the fight against pandemia.
C. The necessary measures to prepare for future pandemias:
The Covid-19 pandemic showed the need to strengthen healthcare systems and develop more effective measures to prevent and control pandemia.
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Strengthening epidemiological supervision: It is necessary to strengthen epidemiological supervision for the early detection of new threats and rapid response to the outbreak of incidence.
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Development of universal vaccines: It is necessary to develop universal vaccines that provide protection against a wide range of viruses.
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Strengthening health systems: It is necessary to strengthen healthcare systems so that they are ready to provide medical care to a large number of patients during the pandemic.
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International cooperation: It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation to exchange information and resources in the fight against pandemias.
VI. Long-term consequences of Covid-19:
Covid-19 pandemia has long-term consequences for health, economics and society.
A. “Long Covid” (Post-Covid Syndrome):
Many people who have undergone Covid-19 experience long symptoms known as a “long covid” or post-shoe syndrome. Symptoms of “long Covid” may include fatigue, shortness of breath, headaches, problems with memory and concentration of attention, joint pain and muscles, loss of taste and smell, depression and anxiety.
B. influence on the economy and employment:
Covid-19 pandemia led to a reduction in economic activity and an increase in unemployment. Restoring the economy and labor market can take several years.
C. Social and psychological consequences:
The pandemic of the Covid-19 led to increased social isolation, loneliness and deterioration of mental health. Overcoming these social and psychological consequences will require significant efforts.
VII. Covid-19 and children:
Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the health and well-being of children.
A. The incidence and severity of the course of the disease in children:
Children can become infected with Covid-19, but in most cases they can tolerate the disease easier than adults. However, some children may develop a severe course of the disease that requires hospitalization. A rare, but serious complication of Covid-19 in children is multi-systemic inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C).
B. Influence of education and development:
The pandemic of the Covid-19 led to the closure of schools and the transition to distance learning, which had a negative impact on the education and development of children. Children, especially from dysfunctional families, were faced with difficulties in mastering the curriculum and the development of social skills.
C. Psychological consequences for children:
Covid-19 pandemia led to increased anxiety, depression and other psychological problems in children. Children experienced stress due to uncertainty, restrictions on social contacts, losses of close and economic difficulties in the family.
VIII. Covid-19 and pregnancy:
Pregnant women are at risk of the severe course of COVID-19 and pregnancy complications.
A. Risks for pregnant women:
Pregnant women with Covid-19 have an increased risk of hospitalization, intensive care and death. Covid-19 can also increase the risk of premature birth, preeclampsia and other pregnancy complications.
B. Risks for the fetus and newborn:
Covid-19 during pregnancy can increase the risk of premature birth and low birth weight. In rare cases, newborns can become infected with the Covid-19 from the mother.
C. Vaccination against Covid-19 during pregnancy:
Covid-19 vaccination is recommended for all pregnant women. Vaccination reduces the risk of the severe course of COVID-19 and pregnancy complications.
IX. Ethical aspects of pandemia Covid-19:
Covid-19 pandemia raised a number of complex ethical issues related to the distribution of resources, health care priorities and limiting personal freedoms.
A. Distribution of vaccines and resources:
During the pandemic, questions arose about the fair distribution of vaccines and other resources, such as Ivl devices. It was necessary to make decisions about who should be given priority in obtaining these resources.
B. Restriction of personal freedoms:
In order to maintain the spread of the government, the government introduced restrictions on personal freedoms, such as quarantine measures, mask regime and restrictions on movement. These restrictions caused disputes about the balance between social health and personal freedoms.
C. Disinformation and fake news:
The pandemia of the Covid-19 was accompanied by the spread of misinformation and fake news about the virus, vaccines and treatment methods. The fight against misinformation and ensuring access to reliable information are important tasks in the conditions of pandemia.
X. The role of science and technology in the fight against pandemia:
Science and technology played a key role in the fight against pandemia Covid-19.
A. Development of vaccines and antiviral drugs:
Thanks to scientific research and technological innovation, effective vaccines and antiviral drugs against the Covid-19 were developed in a record time.
B. Diagnostic tests:
Fast and accurate diagnostic tests were developed to identify infected individuals and control the spread of the virus.
C. Telemedicine and digital technologies:
Telemedicine and digital technologies allowed medical assistance to patients remotely and reduce the burden on the healthcare system.
XI. Covid-19 and global healthcare:
Covid-19 pandemia revealed shortcomings in the global healthcare system and showed the need to strengthen international cooperation to combat pandemias.
A. Strengthening health systems in developing countries:
Covid-19 pandemic had a particularly strong effect on healthcare systems in developing countries. It is necessary to strengthen healthcare systems in these countries so that they are ready to combat pandemias.
B. Improving international cooperation:
It is necessary to improve international cooperation to exchange information, resources and experience in the fight against pandemias.
C. Development of a global strategy for combating pandemias:
It is necessary to develop a global strategy for combating pandemias, which will coordinate the efforts of different countries and organizations.
XII. Covid-19 and the environment:
Covid-19 pandemia had both a positive and negative environmental impact.
A. Reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions:
At the beginning of the pandemic, when restrictions on movement and economic activity were introduced, there was a decrease in air pollution and greenhouse gases emissions.
B. Increase in the use of plastic and medical waste:
Pandemia has led to an increase in the use of plastic, such as masks and gloves, as well as an increase in the amount of medical waste.
C. The need for a stable approach to the fight against pandemias:
It is necessary to apply a steady approach to the fight against pandemias, which takes into account environmental consequences.
XIII. Covid-19 and the future:
The Covid-19 pandemic changed the world and had a long-term impact on health, economics and society.
A. New Normality:
The world after the pandemic Covid-19 will differ from the world to the pandemic. Some changes, such as an increase in the use of telemedicine and distance work, can become a new norm.
B. Preparation for future pandemias:
Covid-19 pandemic showed the need to prepare for future pandemias. It is necessary to strengthen healthcare systems, develop science and technology and improve international cooperation.
C. Pandemia lessons:
The pandemic of the Covid-19 taught us a lot of lessons about the importance of public health, science and solidarity. These lessons will help us better prepare for future threats.
XIV. Prospects for the treatment of “long covid” (post-covid syndrome):
The Long Covid is a significant health care problem that requires further research and develop effective treatment methods.
A. Studies of the pathogenesis of “long covid”:
Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying a “long covid”. This will develop more purposeful and effective treatment methods.
B. Development of rehabilitation methods:
Rehabilitation methods, such as physiotherapy, ergotherapy and cognitive rehabilitation, can help patients with “long Covid” restore functions and improve the quality of life.
C. Support for mental health:
Psychological support and therapy can help patients with “long Covid” cope with depression, anxiety and other psychological problems.
XV. The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the fight against pandemia:
Artificial intelligence (AI) played an important role in the fight against pandemia Covid-19.
A. Prediction of the spread of the virus:
AI can be used to predict the spread of the virus and identify high -risk areas.
B. Development of drugs and vaccines:
AI can speed up the process of developing drugs and vaccines, analyzing large amounts of data and identifying promising candidates.
C. Diagnostics Covid-19:
AI can be used to analyze medical images, such as X-ray pictures and CT-scan, for the COVID-19 diagnosis.
D. Monitoring of the condition of patients:
AI can be used to monitor the condition of patients with COVID-19 and identify those who need urgent medical care.
XVI. Covid-19 and inequality:
Covid-19 pandemia exacerbated inequality in society.
A. Influence on vulnerable groups of the population:
Vulnerable groups of the population, such as elderly people, people with chronic diseases, low-income people and representatives of ethnic minorities, are at a higher risk of severe Covid-19 and death.
B. Inequality in access to vaccines and treatment:
There are significant differences in access to vaccines and the treatment of Covid-19 between different countries and regions of the world.
C. The need to solve the problem of inequality:
It is necessary to solve the problem of inequality in order to ensure fair access to healthcare and social protection for everyone.
XVII. Covid-19 and geopolitics:
The Covid-19 pandemic influenced the geopolitic.
A. International cooperation and competition:
The pandemic revealed both the need for international cooperation and the competition between different countries for access to vaccines and resources.
B. Change in global supply chains:
The pandemic has led to a change in global supply chains, since countries seek to reduce dependence on other countries in the production of important goods.
C. Strengthening geopolitical tension:
The pandemic has strengthened the geopolitical stress between different countries.
XVIII. COVID-19 and disinformation:
Covid-19 misinformation was a serious problem during the pandemic.
A. The spread of fake news and conspiracy theories:
On social networks and other sources, fake news and conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, the effectiveness of vaccines and treatment methods were spread.
B. The influence of misinformation on people’s behavior:
Disinformation had a negative impact on the behavior of people, leading to the rejection of vaccination, non -compliance with precautions and reference to inefficient treatment methods.
C. The fight against misinformation:
It is necessary to deal with misinformation, providing access to reliable information and taking measures against the spread of fake news.
XIX. Covid-19 and cultural changes:
Covid-19 pandemia led to cultural changes.
A. Changing the attitude to hygiene:
The pandemic led to a change in the attitude to hygiene, with more frequent wash of the hands and the use of disinfectants.
B. Increase in the use of technology:
The pandemic has led to an increase in the use of technologies for work, training and communication.
C. Change in social norms:
Pandemia led to a change in social norms, such as social distance and wearing masks.
XX. Covid-19 and long-term health planning:
Covid-19 pandemic emphasized the need for long-term healthcare planning.
A. Strengthening health systems:
It is necessary to strengthen healthcare systems so that they are ready for future pandemics and other emergency situations.
B. Investments in scientific research:
It is necessary to invest in scientific research in order to develop new vaccines, medicines and diagnostic tests.
C. Development of strategies for combating pandemias:
It is necessary to develop strategies to combat pandemias that will take into account various scenarios and provide measures to contain the spread of the virus, provide medical care and mitigate economic and social consequences.
XXI. COVID-19 and influence on the psychological state of medical workers:
The pandemic had a tremendous influence on the psychological state of medical workers who are on the advanced struggle with the virus.
A. Syndrome of emotional burnout:
Medical workers were faced with great stress, overload and emotional burnout due to high load, lack of resources and constant risk of infection.
B. Post -traumatic stress disorder (PTSR):
Some medical workers who have experienced difficult moments during the pandemic may suffer from post -traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
C. The need for psychological support:
It is necessary to provide medical workers with access to psychological support and therapy in order to help them cope with the stress and emotional consequences of pandemia.
XXII. COVID-19 and long-term consequences for the economy of small and medium-sized businesses (SME):
Covid-19 pandemic had a destructive effect on small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), which is the basis of many economies.
A. Closing of enterprises and loss of jobs:
Many SME enterprises were forced to close due to restrictions on activities and reduction of demand, which led to loss of jobs.
B. Financial difficulties and debts:
Many SMEs have encountered financial difficulties and have accumulated debts, which complicates their restoration.
C. The need for state support:
It is necessary to provide state support to the enterprises of the SME in order to help them recover and adapt to new conditions.
XXIII. Covid-19 and the future of distance work:
Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the transition to distance work, and this trend will probably remain in the future.
A. Advantages and disadvantages of distance work:
Remote work has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantages include flexibility, saving time and money for the road, as well as expanding the possibilities for hiring employees from different regions. Disadvantages include social isolation, difficulties in maintaining a balance between work and personal life, as well as technical problems.
B. influence on the labor market and urban infrastructure:
Remote work can influence the labor market and urban infrastructure, since people can move to less expensive regions and reduce trips to cities.
C. The need to adapt to the new work model:
It is necessary to adapt to the new model of work, developing new rules and politicians, providing employees with the necessary equipment and support, as well as creating conditions for effective interaction and cooperation in remote format.
XXIV. Covid-19 and the development of the digital economy:
Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the development of the digital economy, since people began to use online services for purchases, training, entertainment and communication.
A. The growth of e -commerce:
Electronic commerce survived rapid growth during pandemia, since people began to buy more goods and services online.
B. Undergrows – Educational:
Online education has become more popular during the pandemic, since schools and universities were forced to switch to distance learning.
C. Expanding the use of telemedicine:
Telemedicine began to be more widely used during the pandemic, since people began to receive medical consultations and treatment remotely.
D. The need for digital literacy:
It is necessary to increase the digit literacy of the population so that people can use the capabilities of the digital economy and avoid digital inequality.
XXV. COVID-19 and the importance of investment in science and innovation:
Covid-19 pandemia has demonstrated the importance of investment in science and innovation to solve global problems.
A. Development of vaccines and drugs:
Scientific research and development made it possible to quickly develop effective vaccines and medicines against the Covid-19.
B. Development of diagnostic tests:
Scientific research and development made it possible to develop quick and accurate diagnostic tests that allow you to identify infected individuals.
C. The need to finance fundamental research:
It is necessary to finance fundamental research, which are the basis for future innovation.
XXVI. Covid-19 and the role of social networks:
Social networks played an important role during the pandemic Covid-19, providing people with the opportunity to communicate, receive information and express their opinion.
A. Distribution of information and misinformation:
Social networks were used both to disseminate useful information about the COVID-19, and for the spread of misinformation and fake news.
B. Influence on mental health:
Social networks can have both a positive and negative impact on the mental health of people. On the one hand, they allow people to stay in touch with friends and family, receive support and share their experiences. On the other hand, they can contribute to the spread of anxiety, depression and social isolation.
C. The need for critical thinking:
It is necessary to develop critical thinking so that people can distinguish reliable information from misinformation on social networks.
XXVII. COVID-19 and influence on the global health policy:
Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the global health policy.
A. Strengthening the World Health Organization (WHO):
The pandemic emphasized the need to strengthen the World Health Organization (WHO) so that it can effectively coordinate the efforts of different countries to combat pandemias.
B. Development of international treaties to combat pandemias:
The development of international treaties to combat pandemias is discussed, which will establish rules and obligations for countries to prevent, identify and respond to pandemia.
C. Increase in financing global healthcare:
It is necessary to increase financing of global healthcare in order to ensure the willingness to future pandemias and other global health problems.
XXVIII. Covid-19 and influence on education systems:
Covid-19 pandemia had a deep effect on education systems all over the world.
A. Transition for distance learning:
Many schools and universities were forced to switch to distance learning, which created problems for students, teachers and parents.
B. Increased inequality in access to education:
Remote training aggravated the inequality in access to education, since not all students have access to the necessary equipment and the Internet.
C. The need to adapt education systems:
It is necessary to adapt education systems to new conditions, developing effective methods of distance learning, providing students with the necessary resources and supporting teachers.
XXIX. Covid-19 and prospects for the development of new generation vaccines:
The development of new generation vaccines is an important area of research in the field of Covid-19.
A. Universal vaccines:
Universal vaccines are developed that will provide protection against a wide range of SARS-COV-2 options.
B. Nazal vaccines:
Nazal vaccines are developed that will be administered through the nose and create immunity in the respiratory tract, which can be more effective for preventing infection.
C. new generation MRNA vaccines:
Vaccines based on a new generation MRN is developed, which will be more stable, effective and easy to make.
XXX. COVID-19 and impact on the real estate market:
Covid-19 pandemia influenced the real estate market.
A. Changing the demand for housing:
The demand for housing has changed, with an increase in interest in country houses and apartments with large areas, where you can work comfortably from home.
B. Impact on commercial real estate:
The demand for office premises has been reduced, as many companies switched to remote work or hybrid models.
C. Prospects for the restoration of the real estate market:
Restoring the real estate market will depend on the development of the economy and changes in work and life models.
This 100000-sign text provides an in-depth analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic, its evolution, global epidemiological situation, impact on various aspects of life, anti-epidemic measures, forecasts, long-term consequences and role of science and technology in the fight against pandemia. It also covers ethical issues, influence on